Will resale restrictions ever be reversed?

Maybe you're right, but I can't ever see it happening. Your point about reservations being harder to get in the future is interesting, I hadn't considered it before. I guess it depends on the habits of people that love BWV and BCV, and what they do after 2042. How many of them just quit DVC after that? How many decide to buy whatever iteration of a resort that comes next in that location?

Seriously fun questions to contemplate. I'm not excited for 2042, but its going to be fascinating to watch.

Never. They don’t make money from resale (except now the $500).

The resale restricted properties being oversubscribed are future Disney employees and future resale owners problems.

This is why if you buy resale, make sure at least it has access to everything before Riviera unless you really really like the property you’re buying into and even then your competition for availability will only go up :(

I actually think they'll use Riviera and Lakeshore Lodge as a starting point to create a new isolated group of resorts, allowing Riviera resale to finally book at Lakeshore Lodge as well as Riviera, that'll give a huge bump to Riviera resale prices AND allow DVC to sell Lakeshore Lodge at a premium, as smarter buyers will not consider the limitations too steep with a contract they could resale that would allow people to go to more than a single resort. Of course, direct sales would be able to book Riviera, Lakeshore, and the original Resorts, giving the distinct advantage to Disney Direct sales (Happiness for everyone!)

I hope you're right

Maybe we'll get lucky and they'll read this suggestion and take it to heart (lol).

I agree with you that Disney won’t do anything to fix a problem until it exists. That’s why I think they might change the restrictions in the distant future. The future Disney employees you are talking about may address the problem once it occurs by altering resale restrictions in some way.

Not being able to book Riviera won’t be much a disincentive to resale when direct owners can’t get in at 7 months anyway. At that point, maybe they’ll open up the other resorts to Riviera resale owners but still keep non-Riviera resale owners out of Riviera.

Never. I think they're OK with the downsides and lower resale value if it means pushing more people to buy direct.

But does it push more people to buy direct, when they lose so many because of the resale value?

For some people, espeically those like myself that are susceptible to FOMO, for sure. I want to be able to stay in all of the new resorts when they are built.

For others that are looking to save a bunch of money and are ok with the limited resort(s) that are bound to the resale contract and aren't really that interested in membership extras, etc... probalby not.

And there's a world for both.

This is where I'd love a ROFR-monster opinion. If Disney can continue to sell Direct to folks, I doubt they'll care about resale values. They just ROFR the contracts where they see an opportunity to make more money selling those recouped points back as Direct. It will always be important to own where you'll want to stay, just to ensure you can book there.

I think it more likely Disney changes booking policies if and when it gets nigh impossible to book your home resort at 11 month window (e.g., limiting "walkers")

Ahhh… you called for me?

First of all, let me clear something up. I don’t “care” about resale values. I care about flavor profiles. And lately? Ohhhh boy… I’ve been loving the taste of an occasional Riviera contract. Nice notes of desperation, lightly seasoned with market correction… and best of all… served at about half the price it used to go for. Delicious.

And you know what makes it even better? I scoop it up, dust it off, and send it right back out the door at full Direct pricing. That’s what I call a well-balanced meal. Honestly, if a few more of those hit the market, don’t be surprised if you hear me yelling “seconds please!” from deep within the ROFR cave.

As for restrictions? Booking policies? Walkers?
Listen… unless it affects my taste buds or my wallet, I couldn’t care less. You’re all debating strategy… I’m over here running a buffet.

You worry about 11 month windows.
I worry about what pairs best with a lightly discounted deed and a strong resale panic.

Carry on though… I’ll just be lurking… watching… waiting… and occasionally snatching up something tasty when the price is right.

It is much more fun to entice the ROFR monster to a thread than to a contract!!!!

I was thinking about this, too. Initially, I was thinking the restrictions would ultimately negatively impact Disney. Resale prices drop because of the restrictions and people won't be willing to pay the direct prices when they can build a portfolio of contracts via resale. Then I thought, on the other hand, most people probably don't realize resale is an option when buying into DVC. So it might become the best thing for Disney, like you mentioned. Eventually, resale prices will stabilize at a level where Disney won't exercise ROFR. But will buyers then just go buy direct because the higher price is worth it? I'm guessing the older resorts will be eaisier to buy resale if there isn't as much demand. But newer resorts might be harder to buy resale. Time will tell.

This is quite an interesting take and something I’d definitely favor. It will be very interesting in 2042 if all 6 resorts really go offline and resale owners can only book at a few places. I’m dreading the day but very anxious to see how Disney handles all this over the next 10ish years.

I don’t see any reason why they would reverse action. There is very little reason for a company to protect the resale value where they don’t receive new money. By making a bigger and bigger difference between direct and resale, they are creating further justification of paying a premium for direct.

If resale prices crash for a property, Disney can ROFR them and sell the property at direct prices. They are buying something for 50 cents and selling at a dollar.

I disagree, the larger the difference is between resale and direct, the harder it is to justify paying (and therefore selling at) the premium price. A significant reason for DVC's success is that unlike most other timeshares, DVC contracts have historically held their value, because resale prices are much higher than they are for other timeshares. Disney wants high resale prices, and if they didn't, the ROFR monster would be caged.

As the price gap between resale and direct becomes larger and larger, more people will choose resale over direct, not fewer. As that gap grows, I think a decrease in direct sales is inevitable. If that gap reaches a critical mass, I think Disney will need to do something to close it. We know Disney won't close it by charging less for direct, so that leaves the only option to increase the price of resale. One way to do that is ROFR, but I think it'll be hard for Disney to give the ROFR monster more of a leash if direct sales are down. The only way to close the gap will be to increase the price of resale by altering resale restrictions in some way.

Then again, perhaps the price gap closes naturally. The price gap gets bigger, turning more people toward resale, increasing the price of resale, which then narrows the gap, turning more people to direct, and we end up with an ebb and flow of resale prices relative to direct prices that Disney is comfortable with.

Fun to think about regardless.

I agree with this! I know we personally decided to go direct because the difference between direct and resale PVB was only a few thousand. That gap can be easily recovered in the current perks offered, especially if the buyer is an out of state annual passholder.

Keeping the resale value high also encourages people who are on the fence to buy into the program as well. I would never buy into a timeshare that was hard to get rid of. No one knows what their finances are going to be decades from a purchase, but the idea that I could potentially recoup most of the initial purchase price helps ease anxiety about the high purchase price.

I think approaching 2042 will be the real test on resale restrictions. If I was a betting man, with Disney's recent obsession with money over quality/experience, when they re-deed the 2042 resorts they will all have resale restrictions.

and with 2042 point charts…. 😬

So glad we will still have OKW and SSR after 2042 :D